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Dev Diary #30 - Nuclear Brinkmanship ☢️

What's happening / TLDR: Developer diaries introduce details of Espiocracy - Cold War strategy game in which you play as an intelligence agency. You can catch up with the most important dev diary (The Vision) and find out more on Steam page.

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To paraphrase Fightclub, we meet at a very strange time in world history. This developer diary yearns for "a work of fiction" disclaimer. For all escapism offered by the Cold War, current threats undoubtedly taint the design of Espiocracy and will shape your reception of the game. It is certainly a work of its time.

Stuart Brown eloquently argues in a fantastic essay that video games as a whole are a work of the Cold War times - "an unintended harvest, a nuclear fruit". From the development of game theory, wider rollout of military wargaming, all the way to the progress in computing, simulations, or networks, the work on weapons of mass destruction was always uncomfortably close to gaming.

It is striking, then, that no video game explores nuclear brinkmanship in depth. A few existing attempts either hand the player a nuclear bomb as an inconsequential eraser tool or reduce sabre rattling into a simple board-game-like race with a doomsday clock. During the period of extensive research & prototyping, I almost fell into the same pit, likely for the same reasons as previous developers. When you peer behind the curtain of global fears and look at scientific details, calculations, tests, and usefulness, you can almost feel... disappointment!

Actually deployed warheads had considerably lower yields than weapons from movies and books, simulated damage and casualties were not far from WW2 strategic bombing, radiation is Pandora's box of popular incorrect assumptions, and nuclear winter has a shaky basis. Modern historians even argue that the incineration of Hiroshima and Nagasaki played merely minor role in the Japanese surrender. Academic books are full of similar findings that downplay nuclear weapons. Their implementation at face value inevitably has to trivialize (already virtual!) nuclear bombs - and what's the point of brinkmanship if you're not afraid of the brink?

Espiocracy has ambition to be the first game that renders the highest kind of justice to nuclear brinkmanship. We follow the words of Janne M. Korhonen: atom bombs are fundamentally psychological weapons. The game will focus less on the scientific modeling of explosions, and more on the exploration of human psychology confronted by constant existential threat. This is, after all, a work of fiction.

[h2]Psychological Conflict[/h2]

We start our tour de force of design with Herman Kahn. In the 1960s he published the famous escalation ladder:



Yes, it's rather unrealistic but the entire long paper features many bright observations. The game builds on them and the ladder itself to create an intelligible backbone of otherwise immensely complex psychological conflict:



Every country in the game world has at least two positions (!) on the ladder. There is a real position, usually known to the leader(s) responsible for nuclear weapons in the country, and then there is externally perceived (probable) position, known to other leaders, actors, and entire populations, set by the combination of threats, statements, credibility, evidence, including also actions of other players. In rare cases, other nations may be privy to the third, secret perception that follows special insight or agreements.

Following Kahn's ladder, steps are not meant to be followed one by one, and instead, merely present possible options of escalation or de-escalation from the current position. Steps are by design very different, some acting as one-time events (a threat is forgotten if not repeated after some time) whereas others serve as default fallback points (past tense and infinitives, eg. after a nuclear test a country returns to expanding stockpile). Admittedly, a ladder is not the best analogy (but it sounds nice and has historical weight). A better analogy can be found near poker chips - as a player, you can bet any amount equal to or higher than bets of other players, you can refuse to bet, you may be forced to bet blindly, and over time you may acquire more chips and therefore be able to place higher bets. Most importantly, during the cycles of bidding you build mental models of other players, and get to know their modus operandi, level of aggression, acceptable risks, limits, bluffs, and mistakes.

Directly understood nuclear brinkmanship happens between real and perceived positions. Play truthfully to establish credibility. Use credibility to bluff. Downplay escalation to surprise the opponent. Decipher the real positions of other players. Beat the drums of war by exaggerating the perceived position of the enemy.

[h2]Real Proliferation and Preparation[/h2]

Distance between positions on the ladder is limited by logical constraints. It's impossible to wage nuclear threats without any real work on the nuclear arsenal - or to threaten with global thermonuclear war with a stockpile of five warheads. Beyond constraints, a larger distance is harder to establish and defend. Completely noncredible threats at best may be ignored and at worst laughed off, leading to the demise of a warmonger's political career.

The real position remains the bedrock of nuclear brinkmanship.

The economy here is clear, brutal, and realistic. Advancing real nuclear posture is always costly, it requires much more effort than advancing perceived posture. Real progress relies on expenditure combined with previously introduced mechanics and corresponding modes of interaction:

  • National interests and views motivate the country and actors to pursue a particular level of preparation (also in the context of other countries, especially when countering main opponents)
  • Scientific and technological progress is achieved in Big Science projects supported by local influential actors, including the important role of global progression from clunky atom bombs ("WW2 with nukes") to MIRVs (full mutually assured destruction)
  • Uranium is procured as one of the strategic materials, with the optional role of other materials such as stolen nuclear blueprints
  • Governments assign funds for further expansion of stockpile and strategic delivery systems, decide about deployments and escalation/de-escalation in general

In addition to developing nuclear capabilities, nations can influence the real nuclear posture of other nations - with the prime example of non-proliferation efforts (treaties, inspections, anti-nuclear social movements, or even sabotage - historically Eisenhower considered sabotaging the French nuclear program). Indirectly, it also takes the form of (generally) nonescalatory preparation of warning systems, blast shelters, civil defense, and nuclear-proofing state institutions. On the other side of the spectrum, nuclear-capable nations can weigh in for their allies (eg. USA considering tactical nuclear bombing in Indochina to rescue encircled French units) or even be asked for nuclear assistance (eg. Mao asking Khrushchev to provide atom bombs for the invasion of Taiwan).

[h2]Perception of Nuclear Posture[/h2]

The most straightforward case of perception aligned with reality is simple only in theory. Change of posture has to be officially communicated which often sparks the reaction of the population (eg. protests), actors (eg. strong opposing voices), and nations (eg. escalation in response to escalation).

In the short term, it may be easier to downplay own nuclear position. Lack of any public communication and counterintelligence protection may be enough for some time but later will require special actions, costs, and possibly shortening the distance between real and perceived posture. The most famous nuclear scare of the Cold War - the Cuban Missile Crisis - falls exactly into this bracket. Soviet Union covertly deployed missiles near the USA with the intent to later present this as fait accompli (keeping perceived position far from real posture for some time). However, American intelligence community discovered the deployment, politicians contacted the Soviet side who denied the change in posture, services gathered more evidence, government debated on the response, and then in alignment with the conventional and nuclear-adjacent response, President Kennedy communicated the discovery of deception in dramatic televised speech. The crisis was resolved when the American side agreed to scale back nuclear deployment from Turkey and Italy - a move which, curiously enough, was also secret. Both the origin and course of this crisis will be emergently simulated in the game.

Classic brinkmanship of the Cold War usually relied on the opposite approach - rhetorical escalation beyond real assumed position. Up to 1962, virtually all presidents of the two superpowers employed these threats regularly with mixed results. From Truman exaggerating nuclear stockpile in talks with the not-yet-nuclear USSR to Khrushchev bluffing to strike the West over Berlin blockade, threats were met with individually different responses, and this is also the approach taken by the game - in addition to player's input, actors themselves will decide about the response to escalatory rhetoric. It's also worth mentioning that various moves and accidents can also escalate the tension without direct intent of any of the sides, with the primary example of the IRL events from the year 1983 (Operation RYAN, shoot down of a Korean airliner, ordinary NATO exercise, Petrov accident, misunderstood speeches, diseases of elderly Soviet leaders - truly explosive combination).

Third-party interference can take an unusual shape in the area of perception. It's no coincidence that acquisition or even sheer attempt to acquire nuclear weapons is regarded as an escalation - manufacturing evidence of such a position can be a firm casus belli. On the other side of the aisle, society also contributes to the perception: books and movies can popularize a particular country as a nuclear villain, widespread drills and shelters can instill in the population a perception of higher threat than real. In very rare but possible cases, society can even enter a state of mass panic and riots after perceiving particularly severe escalation - that was for instance the fear that caused the British government to block TV broadcasts of "The War Game" (1966).

Globally, the highest escalatory position reached by any country ever sets the bar for nuclear taboo. Breaking it usually leads, on the one hand, to international outcry and possibly even coalitions formed against the first mover. On the other hand, the world gets accustomed to this new level and others may be tempted to follow the steps if the original party maintained the stance and/or was not severely punished.

[h2]Nuclear Blasts[/h2]

Bulk of psychology aside, nuclear weapons in Espiocracy are a real existential danger to all entities in the game world. Nukes should and will supply players with a sense of paranoia, up to the point of losing the game in the case of the death of all intelligence operatives. In addition to nuclear brinkmanship, you can turn on a realistic game rule that enables nuclear accidents akin to Stanislav Petrov case from 1983, ready to derail the game on every single tick of full MAD readiness.

Preparation for nuclear war features a special on-map mechanic: you are responsible for nuclear plans. This includes the choice of precise escalatory step (from demonstration strike to global strikes), timing, warheads, targets, and their saturation. For a bleak flavor, other actors will sometimes weigh-in to amend the plans - as in the case of Kennedy who removed Warsaw from the list of cities to nuke out of private sympathy.

This is also a good moment to explore - in brief - strategic weapon types and delivery systems. Their details are covered by the scientific-technological mechanics but from the perspective of player agency, the game simulates large changes that may be not obvious to the modern audience. In the early decades of the Cold War, bombs are delivered only (and then still primarily) by bombers which take hours to scramble and then hours to arrive at the target, taking high losses on the way. Nuclear plans of the first decades called even for a few weeks of rolling nuclear bombings, a type of war never really depicted in any popular media. After the first 15-25 years, this evolves into a more familiar form of nuclear warfare employed by ballistic missiles. Severe mutually assured destruction arrives relatively late, initially with submarine-based missiles (which are universally hard to disable before the retaliatory strike, unless they are tailed underwater) and fully with MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles which feature multiple warheads per missile launched into space).

Tactical weapons, understood as weapons used to win battles instead of crippling entire countries, can be produced in mass numbers and can densely saturate deployed military forces, as was the historic case for Europe. Their use, however... is tricky. From the military perspective, it's not an eraser tool - real plans called for insane density of usage (eg. 136 tactical nukes on 100 km front in the 1977 plan) to achieve measurable results. In the spirit of alternate history, the player will be able to pull this off but the main intended role of tactical weapons in the game is centered around a flavorful menagerie of weapon types: nuclear mines, torpedoes, anti-aircraft rockets, or even Davy Crocketts!

Once the escalation reaches the highest levels and the world veers into launching nuclear strikes, the game takes a no-nonsense approach to the representation of the brief conflict, focusing on interesting points of historical divergence: actors taking direct responsibility for giving an order to strike, possible mutinies along the way, first strike wave and retaliatory second strike, along with the long-term spectre of eventual doomsday devices such as dead hand, dormant submarines, and stationary dirty bombs.

The adventure doesn't end here, at least not yet. Destruction takes various forms and affects all physical objects in the game, from infrastructure to people, through direct incineration in the blast, crumbling buildings, EMP (with different influence on older and more modern devices), flash burns, the spread of radioactive fallout, radiation sickness, entire states collapsing under the weight of casualties, nuclear-free continents preparing for nuclear winter...

[h2]Behind The Scenes[/h2]

► The first dev diary clearly rejected doomsday clocks. Hopefully, you can now understand the reason - a single global counter would not only significantly limit psychological exploration of the subject, but it would also reduce the role of unreliable intelligence, local contexts, readiness as a tool of its own, and even rob willing players of the real feeling of paranoia due to accidents looming over the world regardless of DEFCON level.

► Among the most interesting-disappointing controversies, nuclear winters occupy the top place. It's a very hairy story about human minds (which will serve as a small inspiration for an event or two in the game). In short, the notion of nuclear winter originated in the 80s from very early and simple simulations of soot from burning cities, with results highly hinging on a few numerical constants. Scientists, riding the wave of the 1983 nuclear scare, huge movies such as "The Day After", and nuclear disarmament talks, saw this as an opportunity to pursue noble anti-nuclear activism and they more or less succeeded, with the help of celebrities such as Carl Sagan. The world indeed believed that the Earth will freeze to death due to soot blocking the sunlight. Later real-world events (such as burning oil wells during the Gulf War) and more precise modeling never fully confirmed these warnings. The latest, most advanced modeling attempts produce rather timid results - 100 cities destroyed by nuclear bombs would simply cancel global warming, lowering global temperature just by 1°C. Even an enormous exchange of 400 MT would cause a decrease in global average temperature by 8°C for a decade, after which temperatures would return to normal... Notably, just two months ago Nature published detailed study that essentially dropped the term "nuclear winter" and instead focused on global famine (which still did not reach some parts of the world, such as Australia, even in the worst case scenarios).

► Nuclear weapons sit at the very heart of the inspiration behind the development of Espiocracy. In addition to mentioned Nuclear Fruit by Ahoy, I always find plenty of interesting takes in Fail Safe from 1964 (IMO the best movie about and from the Cold War), an indie movie by Ben Marking, and obviously classic Dr. Strangelove, always present in subtitles of the diaries.

[h2]Final Remarks[/h2]

Nuclear and adjacent UI is in the middle of reworks, hence no screenshots.

Next up, we'll continue the topic of weapons of mass destruction: Biological and Chemical Weapons in two weeks.

If you're not already wishlisting Espiocracy, consider doing it:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1670650/Espiocracy/

There is also a small community around Espiocracy:



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"Cold War kids were hard to kill
Under their desks in an air raid drill"

Billy Joel

Dev Diary #29 - Conventional Wars 🪖

What's happening / TLDR: Developer diaries introduce details of Espiocracy - Cold War strategy game in which you play as an intelligence agency. You can catch up with the most important dev diary (The Vision) and find out more on Steam page.

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Espiocracy is not a wargame. Conventional conflicts follow the KISS principle and are reducible to one sentence: free-moving NATO counters fighting in simulated battles. Design focus, as always, is closer to the unconventional side of the world - Espiocracy is (partially) a special forces game!

Modern special operation forces (SOF) were forged in the fire of WW2, right before the start date of the game. In a true homage to SOE commandos, OSS paramilitary camps, CIA green berets, and many later units, you will be able to pull off famous special operations from WW2 and beyond - parachute deep behind enemy lines, blow up critical targets, pave the way for routes of invasion, or disable dangerous capabilities of the enemy - during conventional conflicts.

[h2]Military Forces[/h2]

The player controls special branch of local military forces. Other branches usually include land army, air force, and navy. Each of them is characterized by:

  • Number of active duty soldiers
  • Number of reserve soldiers, with ability to mobilize them in case of conflict
  • Condition of an average soldier (includes training, small equipment, readiness, experience etc)
  • Heavy equipment (tanks, helicopters, fighters, carriers etc)
  • Quality of command, control, and logistics
  • Level of corruption

Branches are funded from the state budget, changed by initiatives of significant actors (even to the point of favoring branches, eg. Eisenhower advocating for strong air force), and external context (such as technological paradigms or regional instability). In the event of war, branches are generally combined and fight under highest local denominator - brigade, division, corps, or army.

[h2]Before a War[/h2]

Every country maintains a set of war plans. Their existence and details follow national interests, webs of alliances, state of military, temporary opportunities, and sometimes even personal grudges of leading actors. At the very least, there are defensive war plans which contain largely standard data (such as C&C, bases and their protection, defense lines, useful retreat and counterattack paths) and their main value lies in protection/stealing. Offensive war plans, on the other hand, are highly prized materials, prepared both "just in case" and before real operation, which - when captured by the defending side - can decide about the fate of war.

One of the inspirations behind war plans in the game

Players take part in unconventional planning before real wars - on the level of special forces and nuclear targeting (next dev diary). Utilizing player agency slightly larger than real life, other branches generally follow opportunities established by the player. For instance, special forces breaching particular part of border will be followed by conventional forces, sabotage on particular direction will be assisted by air assaults, strategic reconnaissance and its results will guide movement of armies, and so on.

[h2]Course of a War[/h2]

After a war is declared or border skirmishes evolve into larger conflict, the war relies on two strategic halves. Belligerents compete for strategic targets on the ground: cities, airports, railway junctions, sea ports, and high value actors such a head of state. They are defended, conquered, denied (by encirclement, strategic bombing... or nukes), and then used to enable strategic movement which generally means offensives and counteroffensives (and lack of movement - holding the line), naturally leading to direct simulated battles.

Rapid offensives and counteroffensives of the Korean War

Inspired by highly mobile warfare of Korean War, Operation Desert Storm, and Seven Days to the River Rhine, combined units swiftly cover larger swaths of terrain both when pursuing the enemy and when retreating. Actions are dependent on the state of military branches (which can significantly change during the conflict) and terrain details (to, i.a., approximate strategic role of the Fulda Gap).

After initial (planned) special operations are carried out, the player is able to react on the battlefield near both described halves. You can conduct raids on strategic targets, rescue protected strategic assets (from hostage situations to easing encirclement), harass movement via ambushes and sabotage, enable new opportunities, train local guerrilla forces, and so on.

There's no war score, only a natural competition for targets and means to conquer/defend targets. All sides usually maintain communication channels which are used for small agreements such as temporary ceasefires or exchanges of POWs, which pave the way for deeper negotiations and eventual final peace deal. Third party countries often exert pressure on belligerents and may attempt to resolve situation with tools such as UN peacekeeping forces. Actors inside involved countries not only do not pause activities but sometimes even see conventional wars as an opportunity to climb the ladder - for instance via coup against government which poorly handles unpopular war.

Last but not least, every conventional war is a boon for military intelligence. From interrogations to captured equipment, all participants acquire vast knowledge about the enemy, actors, technology. At the same time, other agencies may infiltrate conflicts to acquire at least part of the treasure trove.

[h2]Alternate Approaches[/h2]

Rich history of military conflicts and their representation in games (also in the professional wargaming context) supplies many possible takes. The topic of military intelligence alone is vast and deserves many espionage-focused games. Espiocracy chose SOF angle - what were the other considered options?

  • False intelligence game, following the likes of WW2 deception (Operation Fortitude!)
  • Donald Nichols simulator, a man who built his private empire of targets, bribes, and spies in every unit during the Korean War - it's impossible to summarize his biography in one paragraph, so here's a taste: when his enemies dispatched an assassin to kill him, he was informed about the plot by his vast network of sources, murdered the perp, and then buried the body near his office as a warning for future plotters
  • Embedded military intelligence units, deciphering precise movements, incoming attacks, working out tactical and operational layer of a war, creating and resolving fog of war
  • Psyops side of the war, heavy-handed war-time propaganda, encouraging surrenders and defection, motivating own soldiers
  • War room with constantly incoming intelligence with various levels of uncertainty that is then used to make decisions on the battlefield

Many of them were a source of precious inspirations and are featured in (very) limited form.

[h2]Final Remarks[/h2]

The next dev diary will progress from conventional to nuclear wars.

If you're not already wishlisting Espiocracy, consider doing it:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1670650/Espiocracy/

There is also a small community around Espiocracy:



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"Weakness and irresolution unavoidably lead to war" - Odd Arne Westad

Dev Diary #28 - Governments & National Interests ♟️

What's happening / TLDR: Developer diaries introduce details of Espiocracy - Cold War strategy game in which you play as an intelligence agency. You can catch up with the most important dev diary (The Vision) and find out more on Steam page.

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John Lewis Gaddis cleverly compared the Cold War to the Peloponnesian War. Grand strategic stalemates, he wrote, dominated statecraft of both conflicts. Individual victories and defeats were irrelevant in the face of larger attempts to break the stalemate, put the enemy in an unfavorable position, and subdue the opponent in the long term.

This observation not only fits the scarcity of hot wars in the Cold War - but it also aptly characterizes a few conventional conflicts that did erupt during the period. Rather than wars of tactical opportunity, they were almost exclusively total wars of destruction and survival. There was nothing subtle in Korean War, Arab-Israeli Wars, or Operation Desert Storm. Naturally, this level of gravitas requires special decision process behind these rare but important ends of modern foreign policy.

This dev diary explores some parts of the what, how, and why behind grand strategic decision-making of Espiocracy. Wars, in one sentence, are declared to pursue or protect national interests.

[h2]Governments[/h2]

Player persona different than a nation or a nation spirit opens entire fascinating avenues of politics that can expand the grandeur of grand strategy gameplay beyond usual approaches. Here, a government is not a single-minded entity - it is a group of influential actors, including the player, which jointly makes grand strategic decisions.

In a rabbit hole of sorts:

  • Actors are appointed to precise governmental bodies (such as two chambers of legislature)
  • Governmental bodies set legal powers of residing actors in the decision-making process
  • Bodies, legal powers, and appointments are defined by the constitution and electoral law
  • Constitution and laws can be crafted, amended, and changed by appropriate bodies
(Dot chart doesn't work yet.) In this case, after the election, parties will try to form coalition government, appoint prime minister (probably Petr Zenkl from victorious CSNS), divide cabinet positions, and start working on a new constitution since Czechoslovakia in 1946 has more or less unregulated constitutional situation. In the real life, communist KSC won the elections, Gottwald became prime minister, and then the government worked - with a coup along the way - to craft communist constitution. Alternate history right there, just 2 months in!

It's not exactly correct, still needs work on historical accuracy. Sham elections in the USSR do happen in the game though and can be somewhat relevant for internal factions of the communist party.

This level of detail gives voice to political leaders, cabinet members, political parties, military leaders, and naturally the player. Legal powers at the moment include the ability to propose an action (such as a declaration of war), and then down the line approve, reject, or veto. Ideally, the game will follow roughly realistic paths where for instance members of a political party sponsor a bill, which is then voted in parliament chambers and has to be signed by the president (whose veto may be rejected by a significant majority in the parliament). Granularity is defined in the context of precise actions - establishment of an embargo may follow a different path than signing a strategic treaty.

Legal back and forth is supplied by an unlimited amount of politicking. Actors can meet, convince each other, exchange favors, provide evidence, exert pressure, threaten, and so on. In especially important cases, such as joining NATO or declaring wars, a covert meeting takes place, where the most influential members of the government (including the player) jointly decide about the future of the nation.

[h2]National Interests[/h2]

After exploring what and how, we need the why to complete the picture.

Populations and all actors profess views - mental stances towards subjects, for instance, "fear of nuclear war". National interest is a special form of a view, narrowed down to a single stance ("focus on"), common for many actors and usually for the entire country.

Examples include:

  • Acquiring nuclear weapons
  • Rebuilding country after war
  • "Supporting free peoples of the world"
  • Opening foreign markets
  • Promoting human rights
  • Preventing the emergence of hostile major powers or failed states
  • Controlling neighboring countries
  • Preserving neutrality
  • Protecting own citizens abroad
  • Survival of the nation (in terminal cases, often near hot wars)

National interests mark n-th evolution of various foci, threats, and mission trees that were tested in Espiocracy. This time, it's flexible and dynamic guidance for actors, point of conflict between entities in the world, capture the flag for the player, and attempt to decipher very convoluted geopolitical situation of the Cold War and beyond.

Let's explore details of a seemingly obvious national interest: rebuilding the country after the war. Members of the government may pursue actions that advance this case - sign treaties to acquire materials, enter alliances that will revitalize the economy, and accept investment offers with strings attached. There may be conflicting ways to achieve the goal: some actors may argue for the communist model of industrialization, whereas others may vouch for the capitalist approach. The government may subsidize particular sectors of the economy, increase the influence of industrial actors, allow trade unions to thrive, and be especially sensitive to labor strikes. Player as an intelligence agency may procure strategic materials, industrial blueprints, and technology, monitor the delicate balance between investment and exploitation. Most importantly, since national interests are generally objective (well-known internationally), enemies may outright target them, disrupting the efforts with a plethora of tools - from propaganda degrading the country in the eyes of investors to outright sabotage of industrial facilities - which can be intercepted, counteracted, or prevented from happening.

Even this kind of simple and non-aggressive national interest (literally building tall) can become a bone of contention. Imagine what happens when it comes to nukes, ideologies, populations, territorial disputes, colonies, or terrorism!

National interests are set dynamically by the situation (such as destruction -> rebuilding), military logic (such as the acquisition of nuclear weapons -> prohibiting other countries from acquiring nuclear weapons), and direct political decisions (including covert ones, with the acquisition of nuclear weapons being one of them). Returning to the declaration of war, national interests here usually take the place of the good old casus belli (with CB still possible but less significant), where "protecting all Americans abroad" as national interest becomes one of the arguments for invading Grenada in 1983 (600 U.S. citizens studying medicine on the island).

[h2]Final Remarks[/h2]

Now we're ready to explore Conventional Wars in Espiocracy, to be described in the next dev diary

If you're not already wishlisting Espiocracy, consider doing it:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1670650/Espiocracy/

There is also a small community around Espiocracy:



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"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow" - Henry Palmerstone, British Prime Minister

Dev Diary #27 - Guerrilla Warfare II 🔥

What's happening / TLDR: Developer diaries introduce details of Espiocracy - Cold War strategy game in which you play as an intelligence agency. You can catch up with the most important dev diary (The Vision) and find out more on Steam page.

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Welcome back,

In the second dev diary about guerrilla warfare in Espiocracy, we will focus on player agency - available actions, interactions between players, degrees of freedom. This very central lens of the development receives a lot of attention in prose of many dev diaries (#22 in particular). To spice up the agential focus by a notch, here we'll skip the prose altogether and jump straight to bullet points interspaced with screenshots that answer the most important question: what can you actually do in the game?

[h2]Counterinsurgency[/h2]

► Gameplay focused on grand strategic interventions and denial of future capabilities

Spread defense between borders, population centers, critical infrastructure, transport networks

► Achieve degree of control over insurgents to push them towards particular actions



► Gather intelligence on incoming ambushes to evade and counterambush them

► Strike weapon flow and caches

► Search, destroy, and other SOF approaches

► Many approaches to propaganda, from false materials to radio stations

► Recruit, infiltrate, and other intelligence operations



► Capture and interrogate people

► Negotiate with intercepted saboteurs

► Cooperate with population centers, governors, and actors inside

► Establish resettlement camps

► Force relocation of entire villages

► Bounty and amnesty programs

► Destroy terrain, including the likes of Agent Orange

► Hunt down double agents among own ranks

► Deal with ill-disciplined acts and massacres, from trials to cover-ups

► Detect and intercept covert international support

► Loss of operatives as an opportunity to strike, pursue intelligence, or change sides



[h2]Insurgency[/h2]

► Sub-national gameplay parallel to decolonization

Nudge participants towards objectives: ambushes, attrition, contesting terrain and cities

► Recruit people en masse



► Smuggle weapons

► Establish training camps and other structures



► Fortify conquered territory with tunnels, mines, and asymmetric weaponry

► Infiltrate law enforcement services and military

► Convince and coerce actors to support the cause



► Conquer prisons to free up captured rebels and acquire new members

► Provoke indiscriminate attacks of the other side to exploit anger in the population

► Negotiate ceasefire, concessions, withdrawals

► Procure international support

[h2]Other Combinations[/h2]

► Game over condition: loss of all operatives

► Fall back to partisan underground during occupation

► Infiltrate third-party conflict to gather intelligence and opportunities

► Back insurgency and counterinsurgency in the same conflict

► Send envoys and mediate negotiations



► Engage United Nations

► Become sanctuary for one of the sides

► Exploit lawless territories

► Beat the drum for third-party military intervention

[h2]Final Remarks[/h2]

As always, it's work in progress and after nth iteration there's always n+1.

The next dev diary will cover Conventional Wars, to be published on September 2nd.

If you're not already wishlisting Espiocracy, consider doing it:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1670650/Espiocracy/

There is also a small community around Espiocracy:



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"Warfare is no longer a matter of chivalry but of subversion, and subversion has its own special arsenal of tools and weapons" - Stanley Lovell, CIA officer

Dev Diary #26 - Simulation Engine 🧳

What's happening / TLDR: Developer diaries introduce details of Espiocracy - Cold War strategy game in which you play as an intelligence agency. You can catch up with the most important dev diary (The Vision) and find out more on Steam page.

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Before we proceed to the second part of mechanics making up guerrilla warfare in Espiocracy, we ought to take a detour - Guerrilla Warfare 1.5 - to explore a system that plays a vital role in conflicts and deserves a dev diary on its own (be warned: it's more dev and more diary than usually, as you can judge from this very long first sentence).

Some design questions look like mathematical challenges. Find Z for the following X and Y. Find the outcome of an operation executed by particular operatives against a particular target. Find the result of an ambush given such and such belligerents. Find consequences of a raid, battle, sweep, or negotiation rounds. Given enough similar questions, like in mathematics, human mind recognizes the pattern and solves not just a single example but a larger category, perfecting methods that are useful beyond the original set of problems. This is the simulation engine in Espiocracy.

It's easier to understand it by roughly following the path of development. Originally (7 months ago), operations such as assassination or recruitment ended with one of the five hardcoded outcomes. On paper because in practice players avoid negative consequences and usually cannot afford extremely positive results, narrowing down the outcomes to just two or three variants. Bummer, let's solve this!

  1. We add additional non-exclusive outcomes (eg. you successfully recruited X but you left behind breadcrumbs that can endanger X)
  2. These should logically originate from the course of action (eg. "1" caused by a careless meeting under the eye of surveillance)
  3. Actions should be defined by other actions, including player decisions (eg. "2" caused by rushing to meet X in their homeland instead of waiting until X leaves the country on holidays)
  4. Additional outcomes are no longer always additional, they sometimes should directly affect the main outcome (eg. "3" -> "2" -> "1" blowing up the cover and halting the final approach)

Then, we essentially arrive at chains of actions and outcomes, A -> B -> C. Steps and branching, classic approach in many video games, maybe a little bit more emergent than usually.

Here's where things start to get spicy: there's nothing that prohibits such a simulation from spawning more simulations. On the one hand, we can horizontally proceed from entire simulation A to entire simulation B, for instance from recruiting X to eliminating Y given opportunity, crafting full adventure as we go - the staple of great movies and books. On the other hand, we can vertically flesh out details of any action, adding depth at will. The final pitch during recruitment operation can become a simulation inside simulation, with the course of conversation determining the result and non-linear details, and then mother simulation picking up from its result to, say, pursue hastened exfiltration of an operative because they were seriously threatened during the conversation.

Given that not every interesting set of actions in Espiocracy is an operation, this engine was naturally extrapolated to other parts of the game. It became not only a useful tool for connecting many mechanics in one space but also an interesting design lens: it's not just a procedural generation of the environment (although it can be!), it's usually a competition between active entities, whether it's a car chase, conversation, or nuclear bombing. Generalizing the pattern even further, the engine is really a universal game, intentionally developed as a flexible and efficient von Neumann machine, with inspirations drawn from a wide ensemble of games such as go, football, Nethack, or C:DDA.

[h2]Example: Ambush[/h2]

At their core, most simulations generate organic results in the background. You can always inspect them (if you have appropriate intelligence).

Mockup of ambush simulation.

This ambush consisted of two simulations, macro (daily) level and final approach (minutes). Available actions and course of events depended mainly on available people and weapons. Precise details such as killed and wounded in action, surviving materiel, or even survivors fleeing the scene are determined minute by minute. One can easily imagine many different sequences of events - for instance, without a heavy machine gun and multiple injuries in one sweep, the battle could go on much longer with varied consequences such as more damage to vehicles, rear squad returning with reinforcements, one of the sides running out of ammo, leader killed in action, and so on. All of these are fed back to the world during simulation, changing existing world entities and creating new opportunities (eg. here POWs to be interrogated, exchanged, or even recruited).

[h2]Example: Operation[/h2]

Some simulations can be followed in a more hands-on fashion. Naturally, by default you observe in detail and interact with operations:



When a player participates as one of the sides in a simulation, these are the usual types of available agency:

  • Changing objectives (eg. choosing a more attractive target that became available during operation)
  • Time-related dynamics (eg. accelerating, pausing / staying low, aborting)
  • Optional proactive actions (eg. many ways out, engaging other participants, using more costly methods)
  • Reactions, sometimes also prompted by operatives (eg. discovered three leads - pursue A, B, or C)

We'll certainly return to details of operations in the future.

[h2]Example: Operative Backstory[/h2]

A simulation can be also closer to procedural generation - they are currently used to invent backstories of intelligence operatives, which contribute to their views, traits, motivations, and vulnerabilities.



[h2]Simulationist Tangents[/h2]

In the next dev diary, we'll see more places and modes of interaction with simulations. We will be also returning to them in the future, since simulations find their use also in significant political changes (eg. coup d'etat), interactions between players (eg. negotiations between intelligence agencies), rare events, and so on.

Among unusual uses (tested, not universally implemented at the moment), simulations take part in the Monte Carlo approach to AI - hundreds of runs featuring decision P and then decision Q can be compared by outcomes to provide statistical aid, not only universal between simulation types but also potentially predicting wider strategic choices (that's right, simulation approximating entire Espiocracy). This surely requires a very efficient engine, so let's peek under the hood to see one of the optimizations.

From the get-go, the number of available events/steps was recognized as a possible significant bottleneck. If we want really detailed simulations, they should feature hundreds of probabilistic checks as frequently as possible, and if every one more event/step decreases performance, designers and modders would be outright punished for fleshing out depth - an antithesis to the engine's purpose. This issue is also present in the whole game with thousands of grand-strategy-style events multiplied by dozens of players. Although the latter can be usually sidestepped by distributing checks in time (eg. a dozen of different checks every day), it doesn't work for dynamic and relatively short simulation where anything should be available at any tick. Solution? Balanced binary search trees with probabilistic weights updated externally (on change of factors), nodes rotated for optimal search lengths, and then performing usually a single check per tick for all events.

Removing a node from a balanced binary search tree. Attribution: Nomen4Omen

As with most optimizations, it doesn't exactly eliminate the bottleneck, and instead just moves it into a more convenient place - in this case away from the number of events/steps towards much less frequent and less important probability updates. Here's a practical comparison of two approaches, standard vs tree-based, nicely illustrating O(n) vs O(log n) increase in computational complexity:



Even for the vanilla case of 100^3, we're looking at a performance increase from 24 cycles per second to 61 cycles per second, and this does not include other optimizations such as concurrent simulation runs or reuse of similar trees. More importantly, beyond 100^3, designers of simulations are no longer (severely) punished for expanding the number of events or steps.

[h2]Modding[/h2]

Speaking of designers, simulation engine is a prime example of modding capabilities in Espiocracy. You can modify any existing type of simulation, create new ones, and attach them to most of the mechanics and interactions. This is a good excuse to now get really technical.

Type (blueprint) of simulation is defined by XMLs describing:

  • Phases of simulation (eg. preparation, final approach, return - just a guidance instead of limitation, they can be easily shuffled during simulation)
  • Roles and sources of participants (eg. an intelligence agency and a target)
  • "Capabilities" of participants (eg. surveillance skills - mostly fixed parameters calculated from properties of participants)
  • "Developments" of participants (eg. trust - parameters developed or decreased during simulation, serving also as flexible memory)
  • "Objectives" of participants (eg. recruitment, guides autonomous agents and AI, can be null or changed during simulation)
  • Available "actions" assigned to roles (initiated by one of the participants, eg. intelligence agency meeting the target)
  • Possible events, simulation-wide and role-specific (happening to but not initiated by)
  • Optional display details
  • Setup sequence

As you can probably guess, actions form the beating heart of a simulation, suggesting a design lens again, this time: progress usually stems from active agents doing things, not just from sitting and waiting. Their various types are defined by a plethora of parameters (from temporal configuration to tactical intelligence requirements) and many possible effects. On start, when active, or on finish they can:

  • Modify capabilities and developments
  • Directly change probability of events
  • Launch branches of parallel actions (non-interruptive, resolved outside the main thread)
  • Launch another action from a probabilistically weighted set (with weights calculated from base value, capabilities, and developments)
  • Expose a set of reactions, available to defined participants (including the player)
  • Do just about anything because you can always attach a callback to another function in the game

Generally, simulations start with all participants launching a "background" action type appropriate for the role and the phase. In a usual operation, an intelligence agency starts with preparation in the background, the target - unaware of the battle - starts with simple enough "daily life" action in the background, and counterintelligence services go about their usual surveillance activities until they discover something suspicious. These background actions are always present and serve as the hook for an active agent in the simulation, with attached decisions (eg. approach the target or take a vacation), probabilistic steps, progress over time, and so on. When another action is launched, it can branch off as much as you want it to, including launching another simulation.

According to tests so far, this is an advanced enough system (a lot was refactored away) to simulate the gist of most competitions in the world. One of the examples, written for fun in one evening, is a very simple football match engine!

You probably have heard about programmer art but did you hear about programmer logs? Here you already get a seed of (sport) story from this simulation: after 1:1 in the first half, Blues quickly scored after the half-time, and then Reds reacted with two subs which led them to score the equalizer. Now just plug it into an event about West German - East German match...

This is how it roughly looks in the setup:



And from the perspective of the background action:



Note that it's the simplest possible approach - demonstrating how easy it is to boot up a new kind of simulation, and then how it can be elegantly fleshed out to hundreds of actions and events. With regular fallback to background action and unlimited connections between actions, it's also not as scary as it sounds, since we're not really designing a convoluted quest tree and instead we are closer to electric circuits or pseudoprogramming (and if these sound scary, check out quest trees even for fairly linear RPGs).

[h2]Final Remarks[/h2]

Now we're ready for continuation on guerrilla warfare - see you on August 5th.

If you're not already wishlisting Espiocracy, consider doing it:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1670650/Espiocracy/

There is also a small community around Espiocracy:



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"Almost every problem that you come across is befuddled with all kinds of extraneous data of one sort or another; and if you can bring this problem down into the main issues, you can see more clearly what you are trying to do and perhaps find a solution. Now in so doing you may have stripped away the problem you're after. You may have simplified it to the point that it doesn't even resemble the problem that you started with; but very often if you can solve this simple problem, you can add refinements to the solution of this until you get back to the solution of the one you started with." - Claude Shannon