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Dev Diary #59 - AI



Hello and welcome to the 59th Victoria 3 development diary! With the release of the game just a little more than a month away (which honestly feels surreal), one of the last remaining things for us to do alongside bug fixing is to put the final polishing touches on the AI for release. As such, this feels like a good time to talk about the AI of Victoria 3 - how it’s designed, how it operates, and what tools modders have available to tweak it. However, I won’t really be talking about which exact amount of difficulty the AI provides or which level skill it plays at. Firstly, because perception of AI performance is highly subjective and what is a ‘good AI’ means something different to just about every player, and second because there’s still a few issues to be ironed out before release, one example being AI-controlled countries too frequently experiencing revolutions (something that should hopefully be greatly improved now, but which has yet to be verified by QA).

So then, how does the AI in Victoria 3 work? Well, just as in our other Grand Strategy Games, the AI plays the same game you do. It uses all the same features, faces all the same restrictions, and does not receive the advantage of any ‘cheats’ (with some exceptions if you use certain Game Rules, but more on that later in this dev diary). In addition to this, there are four design principles that guides how the AI should act in Victoria 3:
  1. Roleplaying, not min-maxing: The AI in Victoria 3 should ‘roleplay’ rather than try to play optimally or ‘play like a player’. AIs should not exploit the game and should be acting according to their internally set goals - as an example, it’s perfectly okay for a small German state controlled by the AI to want to be absorbed into a unified Germany, even though being annexed is clearly not the optimal way to play Victoria 3.
  2. Transparency and clarity: The AI’s gameplay strategy and decision-making should be comprehensive to a player - if an AI dislikes the player or won’t go along with a player’s proposal, the player should be able to understand why, and the internal strategies that the AI follows according to the ‘roleplaying’ principle should be clearly shown to the player.
  3. Moddability, within reason: The AI should be as moddable as it is possible to make it without ruining the performance of the game. While it will likely never be possible (at least with current-gen hardware) to actually expose the AI’s core decision-making loop to modders, anywhere where we can allow modders to hook into its decisions through triggers, defines or scripted values, we should do so.
  4. Not too random, not too deterministic: The AI should generally make decisions based on something I like to refer to as ‘semi-randomness’: What this means is that an AI looks at the choices it can make, assigns a score to each, and then throws a set amount of randomness into the mix based on how unpredictable we want it to be for that particular type of decision. For example, if the AI is choosing between two different choices that have base scores 50 and 100, and the randomness factor (R) for this decision is 1.0, this means that the actual score ranges for each of the two is between (X / ( 1 + R ) ) to ( X
  5. ( 1 + R ) ) - ie, between 0.5x to 2x the base score, or 25-100 vs 50-200 in this particular example. In other words, while the AI is far more likely to pick the option scored at 100, it’s not guaranteed to do so - the option worth 50 could end up scoring higher after randomization. However, if the AI was picking between two options scored 100 and 10 instead, it would always pick the 100-value option with a randomness of 1 as the randomness simply can’t beat out the gap in base scores. This is a type of weighting we use in all our games that lets the AI make ‘sensible’ decisions without being completely deterministic.


But enough preamble, let’s dig into the actual AI mechanics in the game! The most central mechanic to the AI in Victoria 3 is the AI Strategies, which follows from all three of these principles. Every AI country in the game is at all times governed by three AI Strategies - one Administrative, one Political and one Diplomatic. Generally speaking, the Administrative strategy decides how the AI develops its economy (for example, should it focus on building plantations for cash crops or try to Industrialize?) and balances its budget, the Political strategy determines which IGs and political reforms the AI favors, and how boldly it’s willing to pursue those political reforms, while the Diplomatic strategy determines what geopolitical direction the AI wants to go in (for instance, does it want to pursue colonization or maintain a stance of well-armed isolationism?). Which AI strategies an AI country picks is semi-randomly determined from a set of weights - as an example, countries with a powerful Intelligentsia Interest Group are more likely to pursue a Progressive Political strategy, but never guaranteed to do so.

Qing at the start of the game tends to have extremely conservative strategies - their goal is solely to maintain internal stability and defend what they already have

The AI strategy system is much more than just broad-strokes AI guidance though: It contains all sorts of values that can be tweaked and hooked into different strategies. Every AI has a hidden ‘default’ strategy which sets values such as how much it values an Obligation from another country, which Wargoals it’s interested in, how aggressive it should be (and against who) and what its baseline Neutrality is in Diplomatic Plays (more on that later). These default values can then be overridden or added onto by the active AI strategies. For example, the AI has a default scoring for the Conquer State war goal against any country against which it has the ‘Conquest’ strategic desire, based on the GDP and population of the state, whether the AI can reach it, whether it’s adjacent, whether it has a port if it’s not adjacent, and so on. Then, if this AI country has the ‘Unify Germany’ diplomatic strategy, this strategy will add an additional value for every North and South German culture state.

Some of the scripted logic that goes into AI evaluation of how much an Obligation is worth, something I’m certain modders are going to tinker with!

I mentioned Strategic Desires - this is something like a mini-strategy, which each AI country can have against every other Diplomatically Relevant (ie, country they can diplomatically interact with based on Interests, neighbor status and so on) country. Strategic Desires are semi-randomly determined, with weighting for each set in the AI strategies - for example, an AI country with the ‘Acquire Colonies’ AI strategy is more likely to want to conquer or subjugate Unrecognized countries than one that has ‘Maintain Power Balance’ as its AI strategy. A major upside of this whole system is that it makes it much easier when we want the AI to pursue specific objectives, such as completing Journal Entries - instead of having to write specialized code for behaviors such as Britain seizing a treaty port from China in the Opium Wars, we simply set the appropriate weights in the AI strategies and the rest handles itself.

The Ottomans have a Belligerent attitude towards Egypt because of their very low attitude score combined with their ‘Conquer’ Strategic Desire

AI strategies and Strategic Desires are of course not static across the entire campaign. Some are set in the history files, while others are allowed to be semi-randomly determined as mentioned above, but over time you can expect them to change. This change can be sped along by certain events - each individual AI Strategy and Strategic Desire has a ‘change points’ meter that causes it to be re-rolled when that meter hits 100, and there are a number of things that can happen to a country which immediately adds a bunch of change points and may trigger a re-roll. For example, if a country declares bankruptcy, all other AI countries will receive a number of change points on their Strategic Desire towards the country that declared the bankruptcy and will be more likely to roll a non-friendly desire, as bankrupt countries are seen as unworthy allies and easy pickings.

Another, less dramatic example is that whenever a country successfully enacts a new law, a number of change points are added to its Political strategy. Hitting 100 change points doesn’t necessarily mean a country’s Strategy or Strategic Desire will change though - it is entirely possible that the outcome of the ‘re-roll’ is to simply pick the same old thing over and over again, especially if the AI’s scripted preference for that strategy is high.

Now that we’ve talked about how the AI functions on a strategic level, let’s switch gears and talk about how it operates in another area, namely the economy. The economic management of Victoria 3 can be quite complex, and as such, making AI for it is no trivial task either. There’s a lot of factors to consider, even for the most straightforward-seeming action: As an example, let’s say the AI is considering whether to build a Tobacco plantation. Simple, right? We just look at the estimated labor costs involved versus the current market price of Tobacco and make a determination on whether it’ll turn a profit?

Well, no. For one, that market price is going to change as soon as the new building is complete and starts adding more Sell Orders of Tobacco to the Market. What’s more, goods substitution also comes into play here: The increased supply of Tobacco will, over time, lead to Pops buying more Tobacco as part of their Intoxicants need, increasing the demand for Tobacco while lowering it for other goods such as liquor (which then in turn would influence the AI’s decision making regarding any buildings with production methods that produce liquor).

So then, how do you account for all these factors without crashing performance every time the AI wants to build something? The solution is a system called Spending Variables, which is a rather unassuming name for how the AI predicts and charts the course of its economy and market. Each AI country’s Spending Variables tracks values such as the Buy Orders and Sell Orders that are going to be generated by buildings which are currently in the construction queue or in the process of hiring employees. This means that if the AI is facing a shortage of Tools, and starts building a Tooling Workshop, it can now understand that once the Tooling Workshop is completed, the shortage of Tools will be resolved, and thus doesn’t start constructing a second or third Tooling Workshop - and can, for example, queue up a construction after the Tooling Workshop that is going to use Tools as an input, even though that would clearly be a terrible idea under the current market conditions. The Spending Variables of course track a whole lot more data than just buy and sell orders, particularly any complex calculation that doesn’t need to be made all the time - such as determining whether the AI feels that it’s under a heightened military threat and thus should prioritize military spending.

Spending Variables are tracked and recorded even for player countries, where they are used for the purposes of prediction - in the shown example, you can tell that expanding the Wheat Farms in Peloponnese is actually going to result in reduced profits for the building due to the price impact on Grain, which means the AI knows this too!

When it comes to making spending decisions based on these variables, the AI actually uses a system that was actually inspired by the development process for Victoria 3 and the issue tracker that we use (JIRA). The AI collects a list of all changes to the government spending it could do, in both directions. For example, subsidizing a particular building, constructing Barracks in a particular state, or reducing the size of its Government Administration in another state. It then assigns each of these actions a Priority and a Score.

Priorities are a tag that determines the general circumstances under which the AI will consider increasing or decreasing their spending on this particular item. When increasing spending, the AI will always pick an item of higher priority over an item of lower priority, with the reverse being true when decreasing spending - low-priority items are cut first. It’s quite common for the same ‘item’ (for example, the same building type in the same state) to have a different priority when it comes to increasing vs decreasing spending, as the AI should generally be reluctant to downsize a building it spent a bunch of money to construct unless it absolutely has to.

The priorities are as follows:
Must-Have: This is something that the AI considers so critical it’d rather go bankrupt than be without it. The AI will always increase spending on a Must-Have, and never decrease spending. Must-Have is used sparingly, with an example being that the AI will never consider downsizing Government Administration buildings when in a Bureaucracy deficit, as lacking Bureaucracy decreases tax revenue and thus would likely just worsen the situation.

Should-Have: This is something that the AI believes is very important and should be acquired as soon as they have a small surplus. The AI is only willing to cut spending on a Should-Have if they’re in debt and can’t find any other way to balance the budget.

Wants-to-Have: This is something the AI considers fairly important and will be willing to increase spending on if they have a modest surplus, but isn’t willing to go into debt for and will cut spending on if they have a budget deficit (not counting temporary expenses, of course) and aren’t sitting on a large pile of gold reserves.

Nice-to-Have: This is something the AI considers low priority and will only be willing to increase spending on if they have a large surplus and nothing better to do with their money. They will cut spending on nice-to-haves the moment their surplus isn’t looking so good.

Should-not-Have: This is something the AI has determined it doesn’t want at all. It will not increase spending on this item under any circumstances and will cut spending on it as soon as possible.

Score is a numerical value that is semi-randomly determined and serves as a tie-breaker between two items of the same priority. So for instance, the Belgian AI might consider Barracks in either Wallonia or Flanders and a Naval Base in Flanders to all be Should-Have, but which of the three it actually ends up increasing spending on is determined by the score of each after randomness is factored in. Together, these two allow the AI to make decisions in a way that should neither be too deterministic nor too random, and makes it easier to handle special cases than a purely score-based system would.

AI spending data isn’t shown in the interface as we consider that to be *too much* transparency, but can be gleaned using the console. Here, you can see that Prussia thinks it has a good surplus of Bureaucracy and doesn’t see any pressing need for more Government Administration buildings

Moving on from the economy, let’s talk about how the AI behaves in Diplomatic Plays, as this is an area where a bunch of things have happened quite recently. If you’ve been following the official streams and various developer AARs, you may be familiar with the way that the alpha implementation AI used to decide which side to back in a Diplomatic Play: It would assign a score to each side, then add the value of a sway offer on top of that to determine if it was willing to be swayed (and sometimes join a side it strongly preferred even without being swayed). This system has now been enhanced with a few new values that govern AI behavior in Diplomatic Plays: Neutrality, Sympathy, Confidence and Boldness. We’ll go through each one in turn and explain how they influence AI decision-making when taking part in a Diplomatic Play.

Neutrality: This is a calculated value that determines how much an AI country wants to stay out of a particular Diplomatic Play, and is based on factors such as which Strategy the AI is pursuing, whether they’re in debt, the shape of their army, and whether they consider the conflict to even be worth caring about at all. In order for an AI to take a side or allow themselves to be swayed, the score of joining one side must now beat out both the score of the other side and their Neutrality Score - so if Austria and Prussia are opposing each other in a play, and Russia gives Austria a score of 30 and Prussia a score of -10 while their Neutrality Score is 50, they will be unwilling to join the play on their own accord and will demand a sway from Austria worth at least 21, while for Prussia the sway offer would need to be worth at least 61.

Sympathy: This is a value that is semi-randomly determined for each non-leader participant towards the two leaders, and which is added directly to their willingness to join that side in the play. Countries tend to have higher sympathy for the defender, lower sympathy for enemies of their allies, and higher sympathy for countries that are facing off against an enemy with high infamy. Sympathy will also change over the course of the play: Any side which adds additional wargoals will generate sympathy for the opposing side based on the Infamy of the wargoal added, and similarly any side which receives support from an uncommitted country will generate sympathy for the other side based on how powerful that new backer is in relation to the other countries involved in the play (conversely, losing a backer increases sympathy for the side that now finds itself with less support).

With nothing more in it for them than a little-valued Obligation, Great Britain has no interest in getting involved in this West African dispute as their Neutrality is simply too high

Confidence: This is a calculated value that only applies to the leader of each side of the Diplomatic Play, and determines how they feel about their chances to come out on top if the Play should escalate to war. This is primarily determined by the relative strength and mobilization level of the two sides’ militaries, but also by factors such as how well they can bear the cost of a war, how internally divided they are and how capable they think their own national forces are to fend off incursions into their territory. The lower the AI’s confidence, the more willing they are to back down, and the more keen they will be to try and secure additional support from uncommitted participants.

Boldness: This is a hidden value that is semi-randomly determined for each participant in the Diplomatic Play. Countries with certain Strategies, higher-ranking countries, countries with strong militaries, and countries that are facing annexation in the Play tend to have higher Boldness. Boldness plays a role in multiple different AI decisions such as how early it mobilizes, how willing it is to join plays without being offered anything, but the main role of Boldness is to be compared against Confidence to determine whether the AI is willing to back down rather than let the play go to war. For this, Confidence and Boldness are added together and the lower the result, the more likely the AI is to back down. There’s some other factors to this as well, such as how much the AI stands to lose from additional wargoals that could be pressed if the Play escalated to war, but Boldness serves as a way to provide ‘predictable randomness’ - that is, an AI Modena facing off against Austria alone would have such a bottomed-out Confidence score that it would need an very high random roll for Boldness to let the play escalate to war, even if they’re facing annexation.

Facing the prospect of war with both Prussia and Russia, there is a chance here that Austria is going to back down here if they can’t secure more support - though they might also decide that Bohemia must be defended at all costs given its integral status in the Empire

AI is a personal passion of mine (I actually started out as an AI programmer for Paradox back in 2013, almost 10 years ago now!) and I could probably keep talking about it forever, but this dev diary is getting awfully long, so to wrap it up I just want to cover the AI Game Rules that are available in Victoria 3, since they’re a bit different from the usual difficulty settings you might be used to. Because of the complex and interconnected nature of Victoria 3’s economy, and our general commitment to simulation, we didn’t want to simply have ‘High Difficulty’ mean that all of the AIs start producing more goods or have a bunch of income created out of nothing, or ‘Low Difficulty’ mean the same for the player. Instead we decided to focus on how the AI interacts with the player and the rest of the world on a geopolitical level. Following this philosophy, the two AI Game Rules we’ve added are called ‘AI Behavior towards Players’ and ‘AI Aggression’.

AI Aggression goes Low - Standard - High and is relatively straightforward: the higher this is, the more aggressively the AI will act in general towards all other countries. It affects which Strategic Desires they tend to prefer, how likely they are to start Diplomatic Plays to carry out those desires and how willing they are to take on Infamy.

AI Behavior towards Players, on the other hand goes Lenient - Standard - Harsh and affects only how the AI views player-controlled countries and is the closest thing to a Difficulty setting that we have. With the regular setting of Standard, the AI treats the Player the same as if they were another AI country, with no special considerations. However, you can also set it to Lenient if you want a ‘friendlier’ experience - this will make the AI more likely to have friendly Strategic Desires towards player countries, make them more likely to support the player in Diplomatic Plays, and will make them unwilling to conquer the player’s Homelands unless they have a claim on it. Conversely, if you’re an experienced hand at the game and want the AI to treat you like the agent of chaos that you are, you can put this setting to ‘Harsh’ - this makes the AI far more suspicious of the players’ intentions, less willing to support them in Diplomatic Plays unless they have something to very clearly gain from it, and more willing to knock the player down a peg or two should a good opportunity to do so arise.

I call this combination of AI Game Rules the ‘Metternich Mode’

Alright then! That’s it for this dev diary - I hope you find it enlightening, and I hope you find the AI in Victoria 3 fun and interesting to play with and against when the game releases. We still have some things to fix before then, and we’re of course going to continue improving, polishing and increasing the moddability of the AI post-release as we do with all our games. I’m particularly interested in hearing about any additional ideas for post-release AI Game Rules that the community may have, as I think that allowing players to tailor their individual AI experience is a great way to deal with some of that subjectivity I mentioned at the start of this dev diary. For now though, farewell and join us again next week as Michael introduces us to Modding in Victoria 3!

Dev Diary #58 - Interest Revisions



Hello and welcome to yet another Victoria 3 development diary. Today is going to be a fairly brief dev diary discussing some design changes in diplomacy that happened as a result of internal playtesting and feedback, specifically to the mechanics of Interests and their significance in the game.

Interests, as you may recall from Dev Diary #19, are essentially a country having a diplomatic presence in a particular Strategic Region, either as a result of owning territory there, having a subject that owns territory there, or through a Declared Interest. Back then, Interests merely limited where you start Diplomatic Plays and Establish Colonies, and acted as a guide for the AI in terms of which countries it needed to care about

With so many Great Powers maintaining Interests there, Europe is a perilous place to start a Diplomatic Play in

So, what has changed between then and now? Well, basically, playtesting revealed two principal issues with Interests in the game. The first was that they simply didn’t feel significant enough, because they only tied directly into colonization and diplomatic plays. The second was that the number of declared Interests a country had available to them was based solely on rank, which meant that Austria with its miniscule navy was able to maintain almost as global a presence as the British with their, well, definitely not so miniscule navy.

To solve the first problem, we decided to do a little experiment - what if instead of just limiting colonization and diplomatic plays, Interests were required for all forms of diplomacy, up to and including trade? This was an idea we’d kicked around previously, but the concern was that it’d simply be too limiting, particularly where trade was concerned, because as mentioned, the only way to get more Interests was to increase your country rank, and once you were a Great Power, well that was it. No more trade partners, at least not of your own choosing.

The solution to the second problem, then, turned out to also be the key to the first one: tying the navy directly into declared Interests. The number of declared Interests from rank were reduced, and instead, Naval Bases now produce declared Interests, with one declared Interest provided per 10 flotillas that a country has. In other words, while Austria can now maintain a handful of declared Interests around Europe to look out for its national interests (pun intended), the size of Britain’s fleet allows it to poke its nose into the business of just about any corner of the world that it wants to.

Spain’s navy may not be what it once was, but it’s still large enough to allow the Spanish a greater diplomatic reach than their Major Power rank would otherwise allow

With this change made, our experiment truly came together, and allowed us to greatly expand the scope of the Interest mechanic. Instead of just being a requirement for taking over land, Interests now signify a formal diplomatic presence in a region without which you simply do not have the ability to interact with that region at all - no French diplomats in Southeast Asia means no French diplomacy in Southeast Asia.

In no particular order, here are all the mechanics that now tie into Interests:
  • Diplomatic Plays & Colonization: As before, a country must have an Interest in a region to start a Diplomatic Play or begin colonizing there.
  • Diplomatic Actions: To conduct diplomacy with a country, you must now have at least one overlapping Interest - meaning they must have an Interest in any strategic region where you also have an Interest. For example, Texas can conduct diplomacy with Britain if Britain maintains an Interest in the Dixie Region, even if Texas has no Interests outside the Dixie region.
  • Trade: To establish a trade route between two markets, one of the two market owners has to have an Interest in any region where the other market is present. For example, if the USA maintains an Interest in La Plata where the Argentine market is present, then Argentina and the USA can trade with each other, even if Argentina doesn’t have an Interest anywhere in North America.
  • Notifications: You will only be informed about diplomatic going-ons between countries with which you have an overlapping Interest, and in states where you have an Interest in the region.


As much as the Sikh Empire might desire European allies against Britain, their landlocked position limits their options - without a coast they will have to wait for one of those powers to take an interest in North India

Ultimately, the result of these changes were threefold: It made Interests a far more central mechanic to the game, it increased the need for maintaining a large fleet-in-being for empires with global ambitions, and it increased immersion by having who you could and could not deal with simply make more sense. An isolated Bhutan in the Himalayas now truly feels isolated, rather than inexplicably being able to send embassies to Paraguay at a whim.

That’s it for today! I’ll be back next week with another Dev Diary on a hotly anticipated topic: The AI of Victoria 3.

Dev Diary #57 - The Journey So Far



Hello all! Now that we know the Victoria 3 release date and have seen a bit of actual, live gameplay, I thought it would be a good idea to recap what the game is and tell you a bit about how we got here. Today I'm going to focus less on abstract principles and pillars and more on concrete game mechanics, the play experience and the process by which we arrived at the current version of the game.

It took us a while, but we built a world!

Let's start with simply: What is Victoria 3? We call it a society builder grand strategy game, where the focus is to mold and shape your chosen country's population, economy, and laws to navigate the power struggles, revolutions, and devastating wars of the 19th and early 20th centuries. In practice this means you will be making many difficult decisions about how to construct your economy, which political factions to empower, and which other countries to befriend and rival.

Everything in Victoria begins and ends with Pops, a.k.a. your population. Pops and their living conditions determine what sorts of economies you are able to run. An agrarian economy may be great at feeding itself and could sustain itself for a long time, but lacks access to manufactured goods to increase living standards. Manufacturing-based industry is more centralized, creating urban centers with wider wealth gaps, but the resulting increase in domestic demand can provide a stable economic foundation for your market. Laissez-faire could make sense for countries whose population demands a wide variety of products while specializing in highly effective production of specific goods, while a command economy may be desirable to counteract foreign influence and steer your population with more precision.

Your people, the bedrock of the simulation and the enduring feature of Victoria games.

Your economy is based around a web of industries (a.k.a. "buildings") that produce and/or consume goods, and the consumption demands of the Pops themselves. Buildings do nothing on their own but must be staffed by Pops, who in return are (hopefully!) provided with wages sufficient to purchase goods and services to improve their living conditions. Privately owned buildings have owner Pops who collect the profits, which they may reinvest or conspicuously spend on lavish luxuries, driving up demand for exotic imports like Fruit or new inventions like Automobiles. As the spirit of your nation, you decide which buildings to construct, where they should be situated, and whether they should be state-subsidized or not. Each such decision will have long-term implications for your country's future.

Buildings are your main tool for nation building, as you determine what your population should be occupying their time with and how. During development, more and more gameplay features were implemented using buildings and their production methods.

Pops are "real people", they don't suddenly appear just because there's work to be done. This begs the question, what would Pops be doing before suitable workplaces have been constructed for them? In Victoria 2, Pops not employed in factories or in special roles like Capitalists contributed towards "Resource Gathering Operations" (RGOs) which created all raw resources in the game. In V3, we wanted resource industries to be among the viable, active choices you could focus your efforts on, but we also didn't want the majority of the population to work on high-yield modern farms at game start. The solution we came up with was subsistence farming, where all unused arable land in a state could be used by Pops of the Peasant Profession to sustain themselves and produce a very small amount of excess goods for the market. These subsistence farms will gradually disappear as modern, industrialized farms and organized plantations are constructed in their place. As there is no guarantee that proper resource industries will pay lower-class Pops a better wage than the living standard Peasants could achieve by simply working the land, depending on when and how this transition is done it may lead to increased wealth disparity even while it's certainly better for your market economy.


Each Pop has an amount of Political Strength derived primarily from their size and wealth, modified by the country's laws. This influence is distributed across the various Interest Groups the Pop supports, empowering them to steer the country's political direction. For example, a wealthy plantation-owning Aristocrat might put most of their gravitas behind the Landowners, espousing a kind of patronizing conservatism. A nation of Farmers might champion the Rural Folk and their simple, honest, and non-expansionist way of life. Meanwhile, a group of coal mining Machinists might join the Trade Unions to push for both workplace safety regulations and more egalitarian expansion of the voting franchise. Over time you will start to recognize the patterns in how your economy has developed over the decades, and how this results in altered power distributions and the emergence of different political movements demanding change.

Interest Groups are new to Victoria 3 and act as the people's voice in their interactions with you. Just like everything else in the game they ultimately only function due to the Pops that lend them support, so impacting the Pops directly will also affect the Interest Groups.

In the earliest playable iteration of Victoria 3, Interest Groups were very dynamic and always organized into parties or factions. Interest Groups could suddenly appear in a country or change their beliefs based on triggered conditions. They had opinions on everything from reforms to what buildings should be constructed to which wars should be waged. This turned out to be extremely confusing, as players never really got a handle on what their country was all about or the outside limits of what might happen if they performed an action. To combat this we created eight Interest Group "templates" which were the same for all countries, with individual variations on those templates for different countries. Rather than popping into existence or fading away as there were causes to champion, we split off a new type of organization - Political Movements - from Interest Groups, so the latter would always have their own identity and ideology while the former could be used to push issues. Rather than changing Interest Groups' opinions based on triggered conditions, we introduced Interest Group Leaders which could modify an Interest Group's ideologies. Finally, we removed the Party/Faction layer altogether, only to reintroduce Parties much later in development as a more comprehensible political layer active only in democracies that still puts Interest Groups front and center.

The set of laws available for a player to try to change has evolved during development, with different tax laws merging into a single category, trade policy being split from the economic system, and the various army model laws being introduced.

The laws themselves, and the institutions they sometimes enable, tie back into the economy through the Pops. Changes to your taxation system might require you to course-correct your economy to both keep your people fed and your treasury in the black. Different army models might permit you to maintain a well-trained, professional army, or require you to rely on raising part of your population as conscripts during times of war which could disrupt your industry. Universal pensions will raise your overall standard of living and decrease poverty rates and turmoil, but can be costly to maintain. And without an education system, you will have a hard time developing the qualifications your Pops need to take advanced professions in cutting-edge factories, academic, and financial institutions.

Our initial model for how Interest Groups should support one Laws over another was based on a kind of 3D political compass, or maybe something akin to Stellaris' Ethics system. But it did not take long for us to realize just how inadequate this method was for describing all the different political positions people in the 19th century could take. For example, is "colonization" a progressive or conservative policy? The answer is that it entirely depends on the context, culture, and whatever intellectual arguments had been voiced by one philosopher or another within the prior decade. So rather than trying to create a brand new theory of Political Science, we abandoned this matrix-model for a much more bespoke system of many dozens of ideologies that each have their own set of stances on specific laws.

An enduring question during early development was, how much should government employees be paid? A fixed amount seemed particularly wrong, but so did a fully configurable amount. We settled on a continually updating national Normal Wage value - a weighted average of wages paid by private industry across incorporated states - and letting the player set wages in steps around this norm, with bonuses or penalties applying for paying more or less.

If you want to run a competitive nation, you cannot rely exclusively on private industry - the bureaucratic machine has to function, taxes must be collected, trains and ships have to depart on time, and the army and navy has to be fully staffed and on alert. These government functions are also represented via buildings, with the Pops who work there paid directly by the treasury. Every individual in your country is represented by Pops, who perform all the functions that make your nation what it is.

Originally Institutions was just another type of Law that you could invest Bureaucracy into. Splitting them out into their own entities whose nature can be changed by Laws made them come alive in a totally new way, and lets you more clearly see how your country's becoming more capable and complex over time.

One design challenge we had to tackle early on in development was how we would represent institutions: as concrete buildings on a local level, or more abstractly on a national level? We really wanted Pops to be responsible for staffing the public sector, so as to not pretend that things like healthcare, education, and policing just happen from legislating their existence. But on the other hand we didn't want to have to saddle the player with having to micromanage constructing the exact right number of hospitals, jailhouses, employment offices, tax collectors, etc etc in every state. In a fit of insanity we briefly flirted with the idea of non-local buildings, where Pops would live in one place but work in an indeterminate "cloud-based" workplace that provides benefits to the entire population, but this started looking like the kind of weird hacky solution that would come back to haunt us later in development and we thankfully abandoned it quite quickly. After consulting a programmer with much fresher eyes on this issue than the design team at this point, we decided to make a building that creates a currency (Bureaucracy) that institutions would consume, just to see how that felt. This proved an excellent trade-off, letting players customize which parts of their country their administration was centered in while ensuring that legislated promises of access to services were distributed correctly across the country in different proportions without excessive micromanagement.

With a well-oiled market supported by appropriate laws you can turn your eye to the economies abroad. Not all goods your people demand can be acquired locally, so which countries do you want to trade with? Importing another country's products could be exactly the kickstart your economy needs, but will also enrich the exporting nation and make you dependent on their economy. Exporting consumer goods will benefit those of your Pops who own the factories the most, while it will come to the detriment of Pops consuming those goods. Each decision made will impact different segments of your population, both economically and politically.

In the original trade system, the amount of goods your routes moved was quite open-ended and required trade center management on both ends. It was micromanagement heavy, complex to understand, and easy for both player and AI to abuse.

Trade has gone through a number of iterations, as it works very differently from both Victoria 2 and most other strategy games. We knew very early on that we wanted market-to-market trade of specific goods, and our supply-and-demand system works well out of the box for creating incentives to trade. The first trade system was serviceable - you would earn trade routes from building Trade Centers and would spend them to move a certain number of goods between two markets. It made sense and was simple to understand, but turned out quite micro-intensive as you had to babysit routes to move just the right amount. It was also much too easy to destroy foreign economies by simply stealing all their supply of a crucial good or oversaturating a market, which was nominally fun to do to the AI but less fun when the AI did it to you.

In the new system, only the country establishing the route gets a trade center to manage it, and the quantity of goods is dependent on what is actually profitable to trade. You can still fine-tune who your trading partners are and how large the routes can grow by using tariffs and embargoes, but the level of interactivity is much more even.

The trade system currently in the game instead creates and expands Trade Centers to manage trade as needed, earning money for the Pops who work it based on the marginal price difference between the two markets. This way you simply establish a route between two markets, and if that good is in high demand in one and in high supply in the other, it will grow until there's no money in trading a larger quantity. That also meant we could implement a tariff system where a player can both earn money off trade and deter other players (or the AI) from importing or exporting particular goods. Crucially though, we needed to see the first, simpler system in action before figuring out what the problems with it would be.

Your nation's prestigiousness, determined by the size and power of its economy, military, culture, and other aspects, sets its position on the global power ranking ladder. Are you but a Minor Power, barely involved in local affairs involving your neighbors? Or a Major Power, a regional powerhouse or up-and-coming global player? Or one of the few Great Powers, whose tendrils reach all over the world, constantly trying to one-up each other so none get too far ahead?

This ranking sets the amount of Influence you receive, which can be used to establish and maintain Diplomatic Pacts with other nations. Trade Agreements simplify trade between your countries, Alliances permit you to come to one another's aid, Customs Unions merge several markets, and numerous types of Subject relationships can be either demanded or requested - by either party, since enjoying the protection of a Great Power may be worth the loss of freedom it entails. Pacts can only be established if countries have overlapping strategic interests, a limited resource forcing you to pick and choose between the parts of the world that matters to you. Interests have always been core to the design principles of Victoria 3 but have gone through a number of revisions as well, some of which will be covered by Martin next week!

Rather than fabricating claims or war justifications, in Victoria 3 you can be as bold and brash with your demands as you wish - for as long as you can afford the Infamy and don't endanger the wrong Great Powers. Finding a balance between the ability to strategically pre-plan your Plays and still having to navigate uncertain outcomes is key to making Diplomatic Plays feel satisfying, and a lot of iteration on both mechanics and AI has gone into finding it.

Demands between nations can also be asserted as Diplomatic Plays, where every country with a stated interest in a region may weigh in on the issue by supporting one of the sides. With enough military strength supporting your claims, even a territorial dispute may be resolved without a single shot being fired. But this is much less a negotiation and more a game of chicken, where in a best-case scenario at most one side walks away with what they want. If that would be you, are you prepared to press this issue even to the point of war, knowing the tremendous loss of money and lives that would bring? Or should you make a concession now and start planning your revenge?

Diplomatic Plays is in many ways an evolution of the Crisis system from Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness, where a "flashpoint" somewhere on the globe could spark an international crisis involving several Great Powers picking sides. The mechanic works well to emphasize the importance of international "policing" of world conflict in the era. Instead of it arising from a flashpoint, issuing a Diplomatic Play in Victoria 3 causes an incident which adversely affects the country initiating it. It can also involve a lot more countries than just Great Powers, as regional or local players might also become involved or recruited.

The point of going to war is to press your war goals and sign a peace deal as soon as possible. Nothing is worse for the economy than a forever-war (unless the foundation of your economy is arms manufacturing, that is…)

Should war become inevitable, you have many further choices to make. What proportion of your population do you conscript into service, and which parts of the country do you leave to keep the economy running? Which of your generals do you mobilize, and which do you retain in reserve? Which troops do you send where? Do you keep your navy back to defend your shorelines, send them out to protect your trade routes, or try to sabotage enemy trade and supply lines? As generals and admirals have different ranks, skill traits, and force allocations from supporting barracks and naval bases, which resource you utilize where can make a big difference in the outcome of the war. Since generals and admirals also support their own Interest Groups, their performance against the enemy can also cause political shifts that persist even after the war.

After having allocated your resources and issued orders, your generals and admirals perform their duties to their best abilities, letting you focus on managing the home front - expanding or subsidizing industries necessary for the war effort, establishing trade routes, managing your taxes, and dealing with dissidents and radicals that use the chaos of war to further their own causes. The outcome of the war is to a large extent determined by if you can keep your population's spirits high - even if your frontlines are gaining ground, it won't help a people demoralized from lack of bread (or furniture, or coffee, or…). Such a population may insist you sign a peace deal as quickly and favorably as possible, whatever your long-term plans were.

As you might imagine, the warfare mechanics have gone through extensive iteration to hit the design goals. Moving stacks of variable-sized armies between small provinces and having fights break out when they overlap is a tried and true mechanic that works great in many strategy games, not just Paradox GSGs. But for Victoria 3 it didn't feel right - the pacing felt off compared to the management/society building gameplay, handling multiple simultaneous wars (or multiple fronts) as a global Great Power was a pain, and the element of "tactics cheese" where a human could use trickery to devastate an AI with a superior army actively harmed the dynamics of Diplomatic Plays where armies are measured against each other by statistics.

Of course, new systems come with new sets of challenges. If you are forced to manage 20 generals and their orders, it's no less work than managing 5 stacks and their locations. Giving the player a sense of presence and an overview of their forces when you can't give a precise location for an army or fleet is a challenge, especially when they're moving to or from something. And most of all, even though we want to reward foresight and strategic thinking, having the outcome of a war virtually predetermined the moment someone starts a Play against you is no fun at all. We're happy with the way it works now, but it has required a lot of experimentation, testing, compromises, and particularly UX work and visual polish.

The true enemy of Victoria 3 is often found inside your borders.

Fail to keep your population content and you may have a revolution or even a cultural secession on your hands. As a populace grows more literate they become class-conscious and politically active, starting or supporting movements to change the nation's laws or demand autonomy. Such situations can be dealt with in several different ways, ranging from the classic bread-and-circus approach of ensuring everyone is so materially satisfied they have no reason to complain, through granting other popular concessions such as welfare programs or a somewhat expanded voting franchise, to suppressing the rowdy Interest Groups and cracking down on protesters with a national guard or secret police. Managing such uprisings before they break out is important even if you have a strong military, since other countries may take advantage of your internal strife and support the revolutionaries in exchange for making you a future puppet state.

One system we thought we'd knocked out of the park on the first attempt was the algorithm for determining which states would rise up against you in case of a revolution. The number would be largely based on the total Political Strength share of the revolting Interest Groups, so if 25% of the Political Strength was against you and your country had eight states, two of them would revolt. Furthermore they would tend to revolt in a cluster, so you wouldn't be fighting on a number of fronts against individual states but as a unified force. The state with the highest proportion of revolutionary Political Strength would be selected as the epicenter, with states neighboring the epicenter likely to follow them.

That worked quite well for large, terrestrial countries like for example France, USA, Brazil, and Russia. But for some reason, every progressive reform in Sweden would result in Gotland - a small sheep-farming island between Sweden and the Baltic states - rising up in lone protest. Can you guess why? The very small population of Gotland consists of only politically apathetic Peasants, and those few Aristocrats who own the land. Therefore, the conservative Landowners held the most dominant position there - relatively speaking - by far. And, in order to be guaranteed more than 1 rebellious state out of Sweden's 5, the Landowners would need to hold 40%+ of the Political Strength. The current algorithm is substantially less elegant but a lot more nuanced, producing results that don't require launching naval invasions against angry shepherds with every social reform you make!

This is of course just scratching the surface of all the systems and dynamics that emerge within Victoria 3's simulation of the modern era. I didn't even get into technology, colonization, infrastructure, slavery, literacy and qualifications, enactment of laws, population growth and migration, national unifications, and all the journal entries and events that shake the game up and keep it eventful throughout the century-long campaign. You can look back at previous dev diaries to get more details on all of these, or wait a mere 8 weeks to see for yourself!

As mentioned, next week Martin will return to discuss the revisions we have made to the Interests mechanics. Tomorrow the team will head out to PDXCON to see several hundreds of you play the game for the very first time, help moderate a massive Victoria megagame, and run panels about the game and its development. We'll be back to continue polishing the brass and tweaking the knobs on Monday, getting everything just right for when you get your hands on the game on October 25th!

Victoria 3 is now available for pre-order: https://pdxint.at/3KlLWgf

Victoria 3 - The Grand Edition

There has been a lot of discussion about the Victoria 3: Grand Edition and what is included in that version. This is a good opportunity to bring some clarity to the differences between our DLCs and outline the kind of future content you can expect to see added to your Grand Edition, and maybe shed some light on other Paradox products.

Music Pack: Additional soundtrack available both in-game and as FLAC/MP3. We aim for approximately 45 minutes of brand new compositions.

Art Pack: Cosmetic assets that increase the variety of visuals in game, for example more assets for character portraits, alternate skins for city buildings, or different paper maps.

Immersion Pack: Narrative and Art-focused packs that increase the depth of the game in a particular aspect - perhaps a region of the world, time period, or theme. Immersion Packs will provide a wealth of new journal entries, events, historical characters, and visual assets that increase variety and emphasize the pack's themes. In addition, Immersion Packs may include new supporting mechanics and gameplay elements (e.g. new laws, technologies, character traits).

Expansion: Where Immersion Packs increase the depth of the game, Expansions increase its breadth. Expansions will contain brand new major mechanics and gameplay modes, making the boundaries of Victoria 3's world simulation grow over time. While Expansions will be focused on new mechanics and novel ways of playing, they will also contain the kind of visual and narrative content available in Immersion Packs to support the new mechanics.

For those looking for analogies to other games, Immersion Packs can be best thought of as a combination of Stellaris' Story Packs and Species Packs, while Expansions will be similar to the same game's Expansion products or Crusader King 3's Royal Court.


Available here: https://pdxint.at/3KlLWgf